Philip Reihl:
CLASS OF 1972
Sacred Heart High SchoolClass of 1972
Waterbury, CT
Philip's Story
5/2/11: Silver & Stock Update for those who give a damn: Look You, of course we got Bin Laden! This is the greatest country in the world with a military equipped with the best artillary money can make. Despite feeling all giddy about killing some terrorist, the market is it's own terrorist ... gauging the eyes out of shorts and a conniving pickpocket if you don't keep two hands on your wallet/purse. Today (Obama Gets Osama Day) the market rally reversed as it too is in need of a brief respite as was/is silver. I expect this stock market sell off to be temporary like another day or two then everything gets off to the races again just in time for the Kentucky Derby. Now listen to me very quietly ... Silver is about to bottom any hour or day now (around $39-42/ounce) so if you didn't sell your metal bars or precious metal stock there's a good chance it's too late. But the good news is this next rally should take us to all time highs in silver ... my time machine is looking for either $52-54 or $63-67 an ounce by June or shortly thereafter. But be warned ... after this rally we are due for a severe correction to somewhere in the $25-30 area so don't fall asleep at the switch. That old proverb, "Sell in May and go away" ... Well sell precious metals and mining stocks in late May to early June and enjoy a nice pina colada at the beach. Other stocks s/b fine but I'll provide an update if things change. One more thing ... after this nasty correction, don't forget to back up the truck (no pickup, I'm talkin' 20' box!) and load up as much as you can cause there will be one more final long lasting rally that should last into 2012 that will see gold and silver go parabolic. Think silver at $82-84 and possibly $128-131 before it's all over. Again this is my opinion. Do your own research or consult someone that is in the business or you could end up like Bin Laden ... swimming with the fishes. Good day Mothers ... Be Happy!
4/26/11: Wow! Silver has been on a tear and today we saw a reversal as it nearly saw $50/ounce and closed the day below $47. Thats a sell signal so indeed half of silver bars were sold today and all but one silver miner sold from stock holdings. I'm holding onto my gold mining stocks as I'm thinking they may rally some still as silver was the leader and gold the lagger. No, I don't have any bars of gold! Just gold mining stock, too bad for me and you, right? Once again this movement in precious metals can be pegged to a weakening US dollar. Silver was over extended after that explosive rally it had as predicted in my last post. The market has continued to rise but is struggling here at 1340 on the S&P 500. We should get through there shortly but this will be a significant support area when the bull ends and the bear revisits us in another year or so. Energy and most materials stocks have continued to rally but may be in for a breather here. Rotate to health care, retail and technology for the next rally and reload the materials after they have a correction of 10% and even more for silver ... say a range of $32-37/ounce. We are just beginning a stock market rally that should last until late May or early June before another correction is due. There is still plenty of upside remaining and should the Federal Reserve decide to extend their purchasing of govt securities (Bonds) and hold rates down the party will continue in earnest. All well here ... just back from Florida and mom's doing well ... "Oleanders growing outside her door" still ... Hahaha! Thanks Steely Dan. My youngest son is getting married here on the Cape this fall so that should be fun and then I'll return to Florida to check up on mom again and tune up my tan before old man winter returns to New England. The price of gasoline and tomatoes is getting ridiculous but I warned you to hedge yourself as I did so no complaints here anyway as I've enjoyed huge wins in the market ala Charlie Sheen ... Winning!
1/17/11: Update - as you can see from my 12/21 post below, we are on target and have even exceeded the high end of my target for the SPX closing at 1293 on Friday (1/14) and may even see new highs in the next week or two to as much as 1313. News today however of Apple CEO Steve Jobs taking a health related leave of abscence could be the catalyst to reverse market trends so be aware that we are at or near a peak for this rally in stocks. The next wave down (correction) should take us down to around SPX 1173 then the rally will rsume.
Gold and silver are pulling back as well but this consolidation should be complete soon (Look for gold to bottom around $1315 in Feb) and then have a potentially explosive move up (say to $1700 and maybe even $2200) before seeing a real correction like that anticipated for the stock market soon ... take profits there ($1700-2200) and then get back in after a severe correction for one final opportunity to make $ in gold & silver as inflation really sets in before selling out when interest rates are rising quickly as the govt (Fed Res) tries to reign in the inflation that they induced from a cheap dollar policy since 2009.
Memo: This is my opinion and just a guideline for those classmates interested in their own investments ... if you do as I say you could lose your first born as well as your home and $, so do your own research or get professional help before investing or speculating in the stock or gold/silver markets if you know what's good for you.
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12/21/10: Wow! It's been awhile since I last blogged here and alot has happened with the economy and politics anyway ... not much change here personally, same ole same ole. My investment accounts are up big as I've been fully invested since early 2009 and have reaped the benefits of the reflation trade in stocks - Oiil, gas, coal, steel and especially the small jurior miners of gold and silver. We are close to a temporary top for this latest run in the market. We may see the S&P 500 reach 1260 -1290 sometime in Jan 2011 but then we should have a correction that lasts a few months (say March or April) .... I continue to trade in and out of stocks with little fear as I know my govt is intent on saving consumers, businesses and the banks via cheap money and low interest rates. Rates have barely budged save for govt bonds which I warned you about. Don't risk your cash in govt bonds for such a small yield and high risk as $ is being forced back into the stock market. Don't be a Johnny come lately either .... we are currently in the late stages of the third wave of five in a bull market. The fourth wave is due once we see 1260-1290 on the S&P 500 index but then as I indicated there will be a correction (wave4) which will be followed by a fifth but final wave up to end this bull sometime in late 2011 or early 2012. So if you're in, prepare to cut back and raise cash in order to have some buying power once a 5-10% correction arrives and then be sure to get out before the end most likely when interest rates start soaring to combat that inflation we spoke about. You should sell into the frenzy when everyone else is buying and hold your cash until interest rates stop rising then lock up your cash in long term CD's and such ...
BTW, 6-8" of snow here on Cape Cod last night ... first sign of winter as the temps have been pretty mild until the last month or so. XMass shopping done and my two sons are doing fine ... one an engineer here in MA and the other an engineer in FL. I'm thankful as the job market still sucks as our businesses continue to deploy their capital overseas providing jobs for the Chinese. Obama got himself into a tight spot and had to give up tax cuts for the wealthy to protect the unemployed but at least it isn't permanemt and should help the recovery some. I'm still a pessimist when it comes to business re-employing Americans but remain hopeful that they come to their senses soon before the consumer has no money to buy their products. Good Luck to you and Happy Holidays!
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Economics class update: 4/3/10 This is not intended to be an April Fools message ... nor a recommendation to invest in certain products or vehicles.
The Federal Reserve calls an expedited-procedures meeting for Monday (4/5/10) at 11:30 a.m. Subject: the Discount Rate ... this could be the first of many rate increases that I warned you about. They raised the Federal Funds rate just after I wrote my last comments (just below this) but that was just a quarter of a point and didn't affect any of us ... just the banks borrowing $ from the gov't.
This one (the discount rate) if raised will start the incline in rates that will affect consumer loans from mortgages to credit cards that are based on variable rates. Why would they raise rates in such a poor economy? Cause the easy money they have been providing to the banks to help revive them and at the same time reinflate the economy to avert deflation and/or depression has adverse long term consequences. The only way we can repay our national debt is with cheap $s hence the 0% interest rates. But those low rates for such a lengthy period, while helping to reinflate assets (owned outright by consumers or by the banks holding the mortgages), will inevitably result in massive inflation as I pointed out earlier. Germany did this after WWI and it came to be known as the Weimar Republic ... in the 1920s German inflation started when Germany had no goods with which to trade (sound familiar - all our good mfg jobs are now gone overseas). The government printed money to deal with the crisis; this allowed Germany to pay war loans and reparations with worthless marks, and helped formerly great industrialists to pay back their own loans (not unlike our capitalists, who borrowed heavily from our banks, to buy other businesses, for...Expand for more
real estate speculation and to build new mfg'g plants abroad). This also led to pay raises for workers and for businessmen who wanted to profit from it or stay even with inflation. Circulation of money rocketed, and soon the Germans discovered their money was worthless.
Don't get me wrong, the guys running our economy know what they're doing and did this purposely with the intent of raising rates to combat the hyperinflation that follows as a result just as it happened in Germany but they failed. The benefits: the US is paying back our national debt with cheap $ and our capitalists and commoners will be paying off their personal debt with cheap $ too. It's a win-win for those in the know that can now pay off their huge debts with cheaper $ rather than liquidating (selling stuff) assets to pay off that debt which would have fueled more deflation. Aside from defaulting on our debt payments to govt debt holders (China, Fin'l Institutions, Gramma, Your Retirement Acct or You) the only way out ... let me say that again, THE ONLY WAY OUT of this mess is to Reinflate! But as I said ... there's two sides to this coin. While we get to pay our debt off with cheap $, the goods that we must import, the commodities needed to mfg those goods will rise in price, and generally faster than the pay increases the workers get as in Weimar Germany, since it's quite a feat to stop the inflation freight train once it leaves the station. If the brains running our Federal Reserve Bank are able to slow this train down with timely increases in interest rates we can avoid disaster but there's the rub. If they raise rates too quickly or too much they could throw us back into deflation and if the rate increases are too slow or too small then hyperinflation may win. It's gunna be a thin wire they will walk on and the winners will be "hedged." Those capitalists mentioned above as well as us holding consumer debt (home, car, student loans) can benefit but at great cost if the Fed fails to contain the inflation unless you are hedged as the big boys are ...
Hedging is a term for playing both outcomes at the same time so that you don't get hurt severely by either one of them and hopefully prosper enough from one to more than offset the loss from the other. Of course, the smart guys know when an outcome is assured as they track this stuff regularly or know someone who does and can pull their hedge or add to it as needed.
What can you do? First thing, try if you are able to convert any variable rate loans to fixed rate as soon as possible ... I assume most have done this by now unless you have lost your job or are over burdened with commercial debt. In that case, time to negotiate with your banker and revise your debt agreements and liquidate or hand over some of those commercial properties to get them to play ball with you. Always best to sell privately if you can find a buyer to reduce debt so your banker can see that you are intent on working it out.
Next, as I said on that earlier post, try to acquire or invest in "hard assets" in your 401k or IRA if not from free cash sitting idle getting little if any interest at the bank. It sounds crazy with the stock market up as much as it is but stocks will continue to rise if the $ continues to weaken and if rising rates do stifle the market those stocks that are poised to prosper from inflation will continue to rise until rates get high enough to halt price rises for these hard assets. Remember, the Fed can't raise rates too quickly or too much at once or risk a double dip recession and/or deflation again. A good example is Steel which is getting expensive as China and India continue to grow and add to their infrastructures. Iron Ore just doubled in price on new contracts between the miners and China! Iron ore and coking coal are essential to make steel. Copper, aluminum and steam coal/oil/gas are in demand from those countries especially with our Mfg's over there in addition to their own exporting goods back here that are no longer produced here.
Precious metals fill the need for inflation hedges (10-20%) via gold, silver & platinum ... other than small bars of the metal itself, the best option is junior or small mining companies that most likely will be taken over by the huge mining outfits from Brazil, Australia, Great Britain or Canada. You can buy individual names or an ETF that specializes in that sector like GDXJ.
The US is intent on becoming energy independent in due time and Obama just announced a plan for offshore drilling. That will take some time but we have enough natural gas to last until nuclear, oil, wind & solar become abundant and efficient. ExxonMobil recently bought a large gas producer (XTO) which could refocus other big oil companies to consider doing the same thing ... again there are individual and ETF's available in that space.
Consider stocks in companies that hold huge real estate assets that are currently undervalued like St Joes in Florida, Alexander & Baldwin in Hawaii, Maui Pineapple, Sears ... or buy some cheap land in FL, AZ, CA or the farm belt. Land is best as it may still be too early for house hunting.
And of course agriculture: ADM, MON, CZZ, IPI, MOS, DE, ANDE, LNN and the railroads that ship those goods (though BNI is no longer available as Warren Buffet just bought that for his company and shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway).
Bottom line, yeah we're due for a correction in the market but overall the govt is forcing a reflation and stocks will rise until rates get extremely high. Generally there needs to be five rate increases before the market gets anxious but ironically this may be just the first and the market is already and has been anxious for the past year!
Oh, for those in Treasuries or US Bonds, be careful as that could be the next bubble to burst with so much elite money hiding in 20-30 year bonds. When yields there approach 5-5.5% make sure you are close to the exits and don't get stuck holding the bag.
This is my opinion and meant to educate and/or alert readers to what's going on ... not intended to be investment advice so do your own research and/or consult with an investment advisor before taking advice on these here internets, OK?
Dateline: Winter 2010 Cape Cod, MA
That monster blizzard purported to drop 12+" on me and my domicile got docile and only spewed 5" or so ... nontheless, it's cold as a WT, but with Valentine's Day only a few days off we're sure to have the cockills of our hearts/etc. warmed up soon by someone! Almost March and my favorite time of year to visit dear old Mom in Florida ... "Oleanders growing outside her door" and all.
Aside from that, the economy stinks. Sorry conservatives but the GOP under Bush (maybe dating back to Reagan) sure made a mess of things with their tax cuts for the wealthy, trickle down economics, supply side theories, etal which proved to truely be Voodoo Economics. What now?
We, or our children & grandchildren are screwed as our current administration has been forced to keep rates down to 0% for the banks in order to resusitate the same SOB's that got us into this mess while they use the free $ provided by us taxpayers to ensure their standard of living with bonuses gallore as their reward for the latest "Nightmare on Wall Street." Sweet!!!
This "Great Recession" will take years to repair itself and will be a no job growth economy for years (a'la Japan's lost decade) until some major construction projects take hold funded by Uncle Sam of course not unlike the WPA under Roosevelt... think new electrical grid, high speed transit, new bridges, roads, etc. Hey, can we get a bigger bridge ovah heah on Cape Cod!?!?
For those of you looking to insulate yourselves from the coming (Super)inflation due to the loss of buying power of the US dollar (as we print as much new money as possible to pay off our debtholders - China, etal) as well as other international currencies and ballooning global debt, the best thing you can do is start acquiring hard assets asap. Once the current deflation is caged and the gov't starts raising (hint) interest rates like a sailor on pay day at the local pub raising shots, you can be sure that real estate, precious metals, primary metals and agricultural commodities will soar like an eagle over the land once again though drawfing the "Whip Inflation Now" days of the Ford/Carter years.
Keep or buy depressed real estate (esp farmland), buy silver or gold bars or mining stocks, and stocks of fertilizer and ag equipment makers. Technology should do well also ... got to go now ... that's your Econ 101 class for this year, good luck to all and happy VD!
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2009: I did hear from Beccia and much to your chagrin, he's alive and well (despite taking up residency in NJ) and as usual he's on the top of his game!
Way to go Keith .... HOOOOGGGGG!!!
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Fall on Cape Cod (10/2008)
Empty golf courses, bay scallops, no reservations needed for your favorite restaurant, cranberries, Octoberfest at Mashpee Commons, big surfs at the beach, no traffic esp on the Bourne Bridge, cheap lobster, Patriots n Celtics games, Red Sox in the playoffs, lonely hearts and lots of drugs n alcohol and of course ... Harry's!
Check it out at harrysbluesbar
Hey, Klobedanz ... next time you go to the Chatham Bars Inn, give me a call and I'll have a martini with you (and your new hubby, Congrats)!
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Cape Cod (Sept 7, 2006)
Moved to The Cape in 02' (Mashpee) but lost my wife to cancer in 04' .... Found Mike "The Big O" Orsatti living a mile down the road from me! .... Small world Huh? .... Doing that internet dating thing .... strange to be dating again at our age isn't it? .... Hey! What ever happened to Joe Caputo, Keith Beccia, Klobedanz, Sheehan and Cordeau ... Look me up next time yer on the cape .... I'm in the book ... Haha! ... Later ....
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